Two Approaches to Build Psychohistory

Psychohistory is the science of large human collectives, and in this sense, it can be compared to thermodynamics, which describes the behavior of gases consisting of a vast number of individual atoms. Following this analogy, two possible approaches to constructing this science can be assumed.

The first, microscopic, or down-top approach, should be based on attributing certain model properties to individual people. Then, either based on statistical analysis or through simulation, we should observe the emergence of large-scale human associations, the evolution of which can be studied. A similar method in a primitive form is used in city-building genre computer games, and the concept of the "economic man" underlies classical political economy.

The second, macroscopic, or top-down, on the contrary, only works with sufficiently large groups of people, to some extent ignoring their internal structure. The apparent advantage of this approach seems to be the abandonment of attempts to describe an individual person, as it seems reasonable to assert that the larger the structure, the simpler, or at least more regular, its behavior. Strictly speaking, at the moment, it is challenging for us to determine the comparative advantages and disadvantages of both approaches.